Forex BTC / USD signal: limited in range, but possible breakout

The pair will likely stay in this range today.

Bearish view

  • Sell ​​BTC / USD and establish a take-profit at 45,700.

  • Add a stop-loss at 48,000.

  • Lead time: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy stop at 47,000 and a take-profit at 49,000.

  • Add a stop-loss at 45,700.

The BTC / USD pair had a slow start to the year as demand for Bitcoin remained weak. The pair is trading at 46,865, which is about 31% below the high of 2021. It is about $ 14,000 higher than it was at the same time in 2021.


Focus on the Fed

The BTC / USD pair moved lower on Monday as concerns about the surge in Covid-19 cases in key countries like the United States remained. While most people in the United States have been vaccinated, the number of daily infections has reached an all-time high.

According to the New York Times, the 14-day average has risen to over 400,000. Worse, these numbers show that most of these cases have been breakthroughs. On the positive side, the number of deaths has declined recently. It has fallen 1.4% in the past 14 days. Therefore, there is a possibility that BTC / USD will fall as investors worry about the trends of these cases.

Another concern is that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be less supportive of the economy this year. In the United States, the Fed has hinted that it will start raising interest rates this year. In total, the bank is expected to implement three rate hikes by December. In addition, the Fed is expected to stop its asset purchases in March as it seeks to slow the rise in inflation.

The focus will be on institutional adoption, as the United States is expected to come up with regulations to govern the industry. In 2021, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other regulators announced they were developing regulations. As the industry gains regulatory clarity, analysts expect institutional investors to step in.

BTC / USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC / USD pair has been under pressure lately. It is down about 10% from its high on December 27. It also moved slightly below the 25- and 50-day moving averages, while the Converging Moving Average Divergence (MACD) formed a bullish divergence pattern.

The pair is also slightly above key support at 45,700, where it struggled to break below several times in December. Therefore, the pair will likely stay within that range today. A move below key support at 45,700 will signal that there are more sellers in the market.


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