(Video) Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, XAUUSD (7 – 11 March 2022)
The forex market is alive and well, with both long and short opportunities materializing with last week’s close.
EURUSD will start this week in a precarious position, sitting on decades-old support, while GBPUSD comes to its own key support.
USDJPY and AUDUSD appear to create short and long opportunities respectively, and Friday’s XAUUSD breakout played out perfectly according to last week’s commentary.
I’ll show you exactly how I trade each market in today’s forecast. Be sure to watch the video and check out the written explanation and charts below.
EURUSD had a relatively lousy close last week, for lack of a better word.
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The Euro has broken back below the descending trendline from the 2008 high and is currently resting on the 2000 channel support.
Although the chart is technically at support, I don’t like the fact that buyers can’t defend the 2008 trendline near 1.10.
Therefore, it will take a close above 1.10 next week to recover this level and signal bullish intention from EURUSD. Until then, I would be cautious with the euro.
I am not interested in shorting this market right now as it is at multi-decade support. But I’m not buying either given Friday’s weak close.
This is a situation where I will wait for either a confirmed break of support and a rounding short test or a recovery above the 1.10 area.
I wrote about GBPUSD last week on the 4th. In that article, I commented on the macro (big picture) channel that has driven price action over the past few years.
However, the pound’s most immediate opportunity will likely come from the descending channel on the daily time frame.
Between this support near 1.29 and the horizontal level of 1.316, the GBPUSD is approaching two key levels which, in my opinion, make it unfavorable.
At the same time, the envy of GBPUSD does not appeal to me at the moment, given the bearish momentum.
For these reasons, I withdraw for the time being. If we get bullish price action from 1.316 this week, I could be looking for a quick long shot.
But I think the best risk to reward here would materialize with a retest of the channel support near 1.29 at 1.295. Time will tell if we get it or not.
GBPUSD should close above channel resistance at around 1.355 to break the downtrend.
The USDJPY has been in an uptrend for 14 months. However, the market has recently failed to break above the 116 region and could be in trouble this week based on Friday’s close.
As mentioned in today’s video, the pair appears to have closed last week below the September trendline. This resistance level is around 115.
This means the USDJPY needs to stay below this zone on the 4-hour and daily timeframes to remain intact as resistance.
As long as that is the case, the USDJPY could be heading towards the 113.50 area this week.
Just keep in mind that this is a more speculative game. This is against the general trend, and Friday breaks are often less compelling due to lower volume.
The AUDUSD appears to have broken out on Friday. The close above the 0.73 area should reverse the trend to support the week ahead.
I like the Australian Dollar higher as long as this 0.73 region holds on a daily closing basis.
As for resistance, the descending channel top of late February 2021 will likely be a factor. This level sits near 0.744.
If the AUDUSD can overcome the resistance of this channel in the coming weeks, 0.755 would be next.
Alternatively, a daily close below 0.73 would be bearish and expose some of the recent lows just above 0.71.
XAUUSD (gold) stole the show last week with an aggressive rally from a symmetrical triangle that broke out on Thursday.
The breakout happened just hours after I wrote about the bullish potential of XAUUSD.
Many members of Daily Price Action managed to catch the move for a good gain in the weekend. And I think there are more in store this week.
Friday’s close above 1960 turns this area back to support. Of course, it depends on the open next week, but I expect a strong bullish reaction in this region.
As mentioned last week, the focus for Friday’s break is 2015, which is also a key price action level. Above is the historical record of 20175.
Given the macro structure of the gold chart and the current fundamental climate, I expect to see new all-time highs for gold this year.